Stating the Obvious

This bit of "news analysis" from the New York Times tells us what we already know: while defying expectations by getting his agenda through Congress, Obama is simultaneously alienating the voters he and his party need to hold Congress come November. I would submit, however, that the political problem only seems to result from Obama's aggressive legislative agenda. The primary difficulty is that unemployment remains close to 10%. It is axiomatic that when such high levels of unemployment obtain at election time, the party in power is going to get smacked.

Paul Krugman had something to say about this almost a year ago. Krugman was arguing for further stimulus spending, suggesting that lingering unemployment--which PK believed could be mitigated by mo' money--would hamstring Obama's legislative ambitions. The good news is that BHO has to a certain extent defied Krugman's expectations, but the economist/columnist's basic critique remains sound: the lack of attention to the unemployment problem is going to hurt the Democrats politically. What's frustrating is that the Republican line of attack, the one that seems to be working, namely that government is doing/spending too much is 180 degrees backwards. Voters seem to be saying, "I'm troubled by continued high unemployment, therefore I want a government that does less."

Sigh.

The chief frustration of life as a citizen in a democracy is the sheer irrationality of so many of one's countrymen.

Give Early, Give Often

I have already made one donation to the House Democratic reelection committee and will soon make another. I encourage all US citizens reading this who have any funds to spare to do likewise. The logic is simple:

• A Republican take-over of the House will be bad for America.
• Cash sways elections.
• Ergo, my financial contribution to the campaigns of threatened Democratic congresspeople is good for America and, by extension, good for the rest of the world.

Before you write out a check to OXFAM or the Sierra Club or National Public Radio, consider that the fate of poor Africans, the environment and public broadcasting will all be quite directly and negatively impacted should the GOP gain a majority in the House of Representatives. The Repubs are already doing their damnedest to hamstring the Obama Administration's efforts at reform. Imagine what damage these vandals will inflict should they be able to block all legislation coming out of the House.

Midterm Worries

I'm just back from a two-week jaunt Stateside. I celebrated Independence Day--on July 3, for some reason--in Williston, Vermont and watched several candidates for high office (VT governor, US House of Reps, US Senate) march in the town parade waving the flag and passing out stickers. It was interesting to me that none of the candidates seemed to identify himself by party, though that probably has more to do with Vermont's unique local political geography than anything broader. What struck me more powerfully, both in Williston and elsewhere on my trip, was how big and pervasive a show electoral politics is in America as compared with Australia.

I watched and read several news stories about how my Democrats are getting set up for a trouncing this November. It seems inevitable to me that we would. Historically a 10% unemployment rate has always been a killer for the party in power. What's so frustrating is the sheer irrationality of voting for a Republican in the present cycle. Their message seems to be: Tired of congressional gridlock? Vote for the party that authored it! Frustrated by the faltering economy? Vote for the party that has consistently opposed efforts to provide relief!

E.J Dionne says that the Democrats are in a catch-22 having to choose whether to move left to energize the base and alienate independents or move right and alienate the base. I say the only thing for Democrats to do is speak the truth loudly and often.