Stating the Obvious

This bit of "news analysis" from the New York Times tells us what we already know: while defying expectations by getting his agenda through Congress, Obama is simultaneously alienating the voters he and his party need to hold Congress come November. I would submit, however, that the political problem only seems to result from Obama's aggressive legislative agenda. The primary difficulty is that unemployment remains close to 10%. It is axiomatic that when such high levels of unemployment obtain at election time, the party in power is going to get smacked.

Paul Krugman had something to say about this almost a year ago. Krugman was arguing for further stimulus spending, suggesting that lingering unemployment--which PK believed could be mitigated by mo' money--would hamstring Obama's legislative ambitions. The good news is that BHO has to a certain extent defied Krugman's expectations, but the economist/columnist's basic critique remains sound: the lack of attention to the unemployment problem is going to hurt the Democrats politically. What's frustrating is that the Republican line of attack, the one that seems to be working, namely that government is doing/spending too much is 180 degrees backwards. Voters seem to be saying, "I'm troubled by continued high unemployment, therefore I want a government that does less."

Sigh.

The chief frustration of life as a citizen in a democracy is the sheer irrationality of so many of one's countrymen.

Give Early, Give Often

I have already made one donation to the House Democratic reelection committee and will soon make another. I encourage all US citizens reading this who have any funds to spare to do likewise. The logic is simple:

• A Republican take-over of the House will be bad for America.
• Cash sways elections.
• Ergo, my financial contribution to the campaigns of threatened Democratic congresspeople is good for America and, by extension, good for the rest of the world.

Before you write out a check to OXFAM or the Sierra Club or National Public Radio, consider that the fate of poor Africans, the environment and public broadcasting will all be quite directly and negatively impacted should the GOP gain a majority in the House of Representatives. The Repubs are already doing their damnedest to hamstring the Obama Administration's efforts at reform. Imagine what damage these vandals will inflict should they be able to block all legislation coming out of the House.

Midterm Worries

I'm just back from a two-week jaunt Stateside. I celebrated Independence Day--on July 3, for some reason--in Williston, Vermont and watched several candidates for high office (VT governor, US House of Reps, US Senate) march in the town parade waving the flag and passing out stickers. It was interesting to me that none of the candidates seemed to identify himself by party, though that probably has more to do with Vermont's unique local political geography than anything broader. What struck me more powerfully, both in Williston and elsewhere on my trip, was how big and pervasive a show electoral politics is in America as compared with Australia.

I watched and read several news stories about how my Democrats are getting set up for a trouncing this November. It seems inevitable to me that we would. Historically a 10% unemployment rate has always been a killer for the party in power. What's so frustrating is the sheer irrationality of voting for a Republican in the present cycle. Their message seems to be: Tired of congressional gridlock? Vote for the party that authored it! Frustrated by the faltering economy? Vote for the party that has consistently opposed efforts to provide relief!

E.J Dionne says that the Democrats are in a catch-22 having to choose whether to move left to energize the base and alienate independents or move right and alienate the base. I say the only thing for Democrats to do is speak the truth loudly and often.

Beat Me To It

It seems a Tax Me Party already exists. Good on 'em!

taxmeparty.org

Tax Me!

The perpetrators of the Tea Party--the Boston Tea Party, back in 1773--cried, "No taxation without representation!" What if now we turned that on its head? What if we wrote/phoned/emailed our Congresswomen and Congressmen saying, "No representation--at least, not by you--without taxation!"

I for one would be quite pleased to pay a higher marginal tax rate--in fact I do pay a higher rate of close to 50%, but in Australia, not the USA--if it meant a more progressive tax system with a better-functioning government, better able to provide needed services and better able to regulate business and industry so as to protect the commonwealth.

This could be the start of a movement: The Pro Tax Party... Tax Us in Texas... Tax US...

How They Roll in Australia

You get up early to watch the Socceroos fall short of the World Cup round of sixteen--or, in my case, stay up late to watch the USA snatch victory from the jaws of defeat--turn on the Today show only to learn that there's a leadership challenge with the ruling Australian Labour Party, then check the net at your morning coffee break and learn that wham! bam! Australia has a new head of state, or a new Prime Minister at least. (Technically speaking Oz's head of state is the Governor General, appointed by QE-II, but I couldn't even tell you the Governor General's name.) The basic plot line is that Kevin Rudd's poll numbers have been tanking and the ALP leadership didn't see Kev as a horse that was going to carry them through the next federal election which comes no later than April of next year, and so, Goodfellas-style, they capped him just when he--and the general public--least expected it.

To me, though, aside from the giddy thrill of contrasting this nearly instantaneous change of national leadership with the 24 month extravaganza that characterizes the my native America's presidential elections, the interesting questions are where and how Rudd went wrong and why over no more than the past 3 or 4 months he has become so exceedingly unpopular. It's a pretty confusing picture. It seems that some are angry at him for abandoning his cap-and-trade carbon pricing scheme, and yet in seeming conflict with such green opposition, people seem nonplussed with his latest policy initiative, a massive "super tax" on mining industry profits. I suspect that the Venn diagram of those who both support cap-and-trade and stand in opposition to the mining tax is small indeed, but that may be precisely the problem. Rudd alienated both the latte-drinking urbanites by chucking the emissions trading scheme, driving them over to the Green Party--ironic since it was opposition from the Senate Greens who felt the ETS didn't set strict enough carbon targets that put the final nail in its coffin--and the working-class miners' union types who have been persuaded by management propaganda that the super tax is going to cost jobs. I do wonder too how much of it is simply the fact that Rudd is personally not all that likable, coming off like a pedantic, annoying, prickly little nerd. It is no accident that Tony Abbot, the leader of the Liberal (read conservative) Party opposition has been getting himself photographed doing things like surfing and finishing an Iron Man triathalon. Too bad for him that he has ears like a pair of satellite dishes and a tendency to get himself tongue tied at the very moment when he should be driving the message home.

McCrystal

Obama needs to fire his lanky ass.  

One shouldn't generalize, but it seems to me that this is what you should expect when you give Special Forces too much rope.  They're just too cool for school.